The findings show that the public is extremely unhappy with the management of Covid and Brexit by the government.
According to a damning new poll that predicts neither the Conservatives nor Labour can gain an absolute majority in a general election tomorrow, the public is overwhelmingly unhappy with the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and Brexit negotiations.
The survey offers the first thorough look at Johnson’s public views of the treatment of the Brexit talks and the pandemic, despite concerns that Britain is moving for a third national lockdown. If the poll is right, the Prime Minister is on track to lose his own seat in Uxbridge and Ruislip South. The results would leave the Tories with 284 seats and Labour with 282 seats – a gain of 82 – according to the survey of more than 22,000 people carried out by data polling company Focaldata, which uses the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach that is meant to be more accurate than conventional surveys. The results in Scotland would see the Scottish National Party achieve a near sweep The poll also predicts that the Liberal Democrats would be reduced from the current 11 to only two seats – in Bath and in Kingston and Surbiton. One out of four voters who backed the Liberal Democrats in 2019 said they would turn to Labour. Many of the Labour seats who would win are in the north of England, in the Midlands and Wales, part of the “red wall” that brought the Tories to power at the time. The poll predicts that the Conservatives, Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Dudley North, Great Grimsby, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Scunthorpe and Sedgefield, would cling to only eight of the 43 red wall seats they secured at the last election. Labour is only ahead of the Tories with 37.7% of the vote, the Lib Dems with 35.6%, the Greens with 8.7% and the Greens with 6.9%. The findings clearly indicate that Sir Keir Starmer, the current Labour leader, is making progress in restoring his party’s popularity.
Labour has slowly chipped away at the 26-point lead enjoyed by the Conservatives over the past six months. The results of the poll are likely to spark more unrest among Tory MPs over the prime minister and his cabinet’s performance. Focaldata founder Justin Ibbett, who conducted a similar survey for the Conservatives before the 2019 election, told The Sunday Times, “A year on from their stunning general election triumph, it is clear that the Conservatives have a lot of work to do if they are to repeat their 2019 success in future elections. “The SNP seems to be the real winner. Not only did it gain all but two Scottish constituencies, but a minority government of Labour and the SNP, which will have a combined majority of just over 20 seats, is the most likely outcome. On social media, Tory supporters were swift to point out that the polling period ended before the Brexit deal was announced, and say that in the few days since then there is proof of a swing back to the Conservatives.