Data indicate that covid deaths in the UK could reach 100k by the end of the month.


Experts say the landmark is likely to be reached before February, based on current estimates.

According to government science advisors, Britain could face 100,000 coronavirus-related deaths before the end of the month in the midst of increasingly urgent calls for action.

As of Sunday, a total of 75,024 individuals had died within 28 days of testing positive for coronavirus, according to government estimates.

But there is a slightly higher number of deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate.

There have been 91,453 deaths in the United Kingdom, according to a Guardian study focused on deaths registered by statistical offices up to Dec. 20 and deaths confirmed by health authorities since then. Or Covid-19 on the death certificate or a positive test within 28 days.

Experts claim the United Kingdom could hit the grim mark of 100,000 deaths by the end of the month, based on current trends.

Covid-19 fatalities [within 28 days of testing]are currently 500 a day on average, with no sign of decline.

If they continue at this stage, it will mean that in the next month around 15,000 more deaths can be anticipated,’ said Dr. Adam Kucharski, associate professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and member of the Pandemic Influenza Scientific Group on Modeling of Government (Spi-M).

“Given the recent spike in cases and hospitalizations – which typically precede deaths by two or three weeks – we could unfortunately see a significantly higher number of deaths by next month if transmission doesn’t decline soon.”
Prof. Graham Medley, who is also from LSHTM and a member of the Scientific Advisory Committee on Emergencies (Sage) of the government, agreed. “It is almost inevitable that we will reach the 100,000 death figure, and there is a chance that this will happen before the end of January if current transmission rates continue,” he said, adding that this will mean that 1 in 660 individuals will have died from the coronavirus.

Monday was the seventh consecutive day, according to government statistics, that the number of cases registered daily in the UK was reported. The number of patients hospitalized with covid was over 50,000, although the number of patients hospitalized with covid has already surpassed the first wave high.

Dr. Kit Yates, co-director of the University of Bath’s Center for Mathematical Biology and a member of the independent expert group Sage, said the outlook is grim.

Case levels are already increasing, which implies that mortality rates could increase for at least the next three weeks – unless there is a substantial effect on vaccination. We may expect cases to grow much faster than before given the impact on spread due to the return of schools. In addition, the potential for hospital congestion means that the number of fatal infections will increase because we would not be able to pr

Although vaccination would prevent many potential casualties, experts said, reducing transmission remains important. “The current rate of about 500 deaths per day will decrease if transmission is reduced, but relatively slowly, and will remain high for several weeks,” Medley said. “Unfortunately, reducing transmission means more harm from restrictive measures.”
The independent Sage has already called for a national shutdown – a step backed by Labour Party leader Keir Starmer on Sunday, while papers released by Sage on Thursday also indicated that such extreme restrictions could be required.

“It is not known whether measures of similar stringency and compliance to the spring closures of both primary and secondary schools would be sufficient to bring R below 1 if the new variant emerged,” one document said.

Further intervention, Yates said, is crucial. “The incredibly frustrating thing is that we know the infections that will cause mortality rates to rise in the coming weeks are already happening, and we’re not doing everything we can to prevent them,” he said. “It’s like being the passenger in a car going downhill toward a cliff, and you know the driver isn’t going to hit the brake pedal.”
Dr. Michael Head, senior global health research fellow at the University of Southampton, accepted that additional restrictions are required. “


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