Do you think the heatwave in May is bad? The worst is still to come, according to scientists.
Yesterday was the warmest May day ever, with temperatures in London’s Kew Gardens reaching 34.8°C (94.6°F), shattering a record set since World War II by a full 2°C (3.6°F).
But the UK’s weather problems are far worse than this unheard-of heat.
Climate experts claim that a “super El Niño” weather cycle and human-caused climate change are “loading the dice” for increasingly hotter weather.
The Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, Professor Liz Bentley, warned the Daily Mail that “widespread temperatures over 30°C” will occur this summer.
“We are seeing more frequent heatwave events [due to] climate change, and these heatwaves are becoming more persistent and intense,” she said. “It is difficult to predict exactly how hot it could get this summer at this point in May, but it is likely that we will see temperatures exceeding 30°C on numerous days over the summer, and quite likely we could see temperatures rising above 35°C.”
Climate experts have revealed how hot the UK could get this summer after temperature records were broken over the Bank Holiday weekend. Pictured: On Bournmouth Beach, people seek refuge from the heat
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Three different, long-standing temperature records were broken by a significant margin over the bank holiday weekend.
In addition to being the hottest May day—the previous record was established in 1944 at 32.8°C (91°F)—it was also the hottest May night and the hottest bank holiday Monday.
Kenley, Greater London residents cooked overnight at 21.3°C (70.3°F) on Sunday.
As a result, it was the first “tropical night” in May in the UK, which is defined as a night where the temperature does not drop below 20°C (68°F).
In contrast, Monday’s record heat has surpassed the highest temperature in 2023 and matched the highest temperature in 2024.
Climate researchers claim that both the background of the changing climate and short-term weather patterns have contributed to these exceptionally high temperatures.
Heatwaves are not directly caused by climate change, but they are becoming more common and strong when they do occur.
This indicates that the UK is seeing more frequent, intense heat waves with longer durations and higher maximum temperatures.
Experts predict that this summer will see temperatures above 35°C, despite the Met Office’s warning that London might face scorching temperatures as high as 34°C today at 17:00.
10.09°C in 2025
10.03°C in 2022
2023: 9.97°C
2014: 9.88°C
2024: 9.79°C
According to a Met Office analysis from last year, the likelihood of surpassing the 1944 temperature record has increased threefold as a result of climate change brought on by human activity.
Extreme heat, which would have been a one-in-100-year anomaly in a climate unaffected by human activity, is now a one-in-33-year occurrence.
“Today’s heat events are emerging earlier, intensifying faster, and occurring across a much warmer background climate.” “Burning fossil fuels has made this heatwave hotter – this is true for the UK today, and everywhere else, all of the time,” Professor Ed Hawkins of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the University of Reading told the Daily Mail.
Scientists are unsure of how severe heatwaves could get this summer because they are heavily influenced by short-term atmospheric patterns.
But according to the research, the probabilities are now in favor of a scorching summer.
“While no one can say exactly how hot the UK will get this summer, the background conditions are certainly loading the dice towards unusual warmth,” University of Reading professor Hannah Cloke told the Daily Mail. “Scientists are increasingly confident that climate change is making extreme heat in the UK more likely, more intense, and more prolonged, even though the exact timing and severity of individual heatwaves cannot yet be predicted months in advance.”
Yesterday, temperatures in certain areas of the nation reached 34.8°C, temporarily establishing a new UK daily temperature record for spring and May.
“The warmer background climate can make it easier for temperatures to rise and stay high for longer if persistent high pressure develops over western Europe during the summer.”
Given the current state of the global climate, the likelihood of a hot summer is very high this year.
After years of record-breaking heat, global temperatures are still “exceptionally high,” and scientists believe a new El Niño event is imminent.
This is a part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a natural climatic pattern that alternates every two to seven years between a hot El Niño and a cool La Niña phase.
Warm seas that accumulate in the Pacific spread out and increase the average surface temperature of the Earth during the El Niño portion of the cycle.
A cooling La Niña pattern is now preventing global warming, making 2026 somewhat colder than prior years.
The return of strong or “super” El Niño conditions is now predicted to occur as early as May or June due to abnormally high sea surface temperatures.
According to some scientists, we may be on the verge of the biggest El Niño cycle in the past 140 years, which could cause global temperatures to skyrocket.
Scientists caution that a “super El Niño” might start as early as May or June, raising global temperatures (shown) to all-time highs.
According to scientists, a monster El Niño event could make 2026 the hottest year ever, which could result in even warmer weather in the UK.
According to a recent study headed by Dr. James Jansen of Columbia University, there is a very good likelihood that 2026 will be the warmest year ever.
The researchers estimate that 2026 will be 0.06°C (0.11°F) hotter than 2024 due to this year’s monster El Niño and the heating effects of human-caused climate change.
According to Professor Cloke, “El Niño does not directly cause UK heatwaves, but it can influence large-scale atmospheric patterns around the world and may increase the likelihood of warmer global conditions overall.”
Although scientists anticipate that El Niño will have its greatest effects in late 2026 and early 2027, these shifting trends may cause the British summer to surpass previous records.
Even so, a cold summer is still possible, and the extreme heat this week does not guarantee that the remainder of the year will set new records.
“While the recent warm weather has been provisionally record-breaking for May, this doesn’t impact the likely conditions through summer as a whole,” Met Office spokeswoman Stephen Dixon told the Daily Mail.
Throughout the summer, even little weather variations can result in drastically different situations. Therefore, even while we can state that we will undoubtedly experience more warm weather at some point throughout the summer, we are unable to pinpoint the precise location or time.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short, is a recurrent climate phenomena that occurs over the tropical Pacific. El Niño and La Niña are its warm and cool phases, respectively.
Every two to seven years, the pattern can fluctuate erratically, and each phase causes predictable changes in precipitation, temperature, and wind.
These modifications impair airflow and have an impact on the world’s climate.
ENSO can be in one of three phases:
Maps illustrating the most frequent effects of El Niño (‘warm episode,’ top) and La Niña (‘cold episode,’ bottom) from December to February, when both phenomena are typically at their peak
Climate.gov
