There are currently 8.3 billion people on Earth, but researchers have warned that this number could plummet in the next 40 years.
In the worst-case scenario, scientists predict that by 2064, humanity may be reduced by half.
According to the researchers from the University of Milan, “the most provocative part of our paper explores hypothetical future scenarios.” They cautioned that this might be the result of resource shortages, a pandemic, world conflict, or climatic breakdown.
“We simulated what might occur if severe carrying-capacity limits were suddenly imposed on Earth due to major environmental crises.”Our model forecasts a sharp worldwide population reduction, with humankind possibly halving by the year 2064, under the purposefully conservative worst-case scenario that Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity abruptly dropped to about two billion people.
According to the researchers, this is a “illustrative mathematical scenario” that illustrates how susceptible population dynamics may be to sudden changes rather than a forecast.
However, the possibility is not entirely implausible given that scientists are raising concerns about global warming, recent pandemics like Covid, and declining fertility rates.
In the worst case, scientists predict that by 2064, there may be half as many people on the planet.
The researchers examined 12,000 years of human population growth for the study, which was published in the journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals.
This allowed them to create a mathematical formula that faithfully replicated the main trends in population growth from the Neolithic to the present.
The model accounts for the fact that the human population grew consistently and slowly in certain eras and rapidly in others.
Overall, they discovered that the trajectory is still largely stable and does not suggest an impending collapse.
However, they cautioned that in a “worst-case illustration,” Earth’s carrying capacity might drop to barely two billion.
This would imply that a quarter of the existing population would be the greatest number of people that our planet could support indefinitely.
They said, “In a scenario where carrying-capacity constraints suddenly become abruptly active, (our equation) predicts a rapid population decline.” This may lead to a crash that would cut the world’s population in half.
The model accounts for the fact that the human population grew consistently and slowly in certain eras and rapidly in others.
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The 1960 “doomsday” scenario, one of the most well-known predictions in population research, is also revisited by the model.
According to the experts, a social or environmental disaster like the following could lead to a population collapse:
This projected that on Friday, November 13, 2026, the world’s population will hit mathematical infinity, leading to a mass extinction.
“In our baseline analysis, the current global trend does not produce a catastrophic singularity like the one predicted,” the researchers of the new study stated. “Humanity avoided that trajectory as fertility rates declined globally, but our new study argues that the underlying mathematics of runaway growth can still reappear under certain conditions.”
According to a study conducted last year, populations may require a fertility rate of 2.7 children per woman in order to prevent long-term extinction.
Compared to earlier predictions of 2.1 children per woman for population replacement, this is greater.
The average number of children per woman is 1.41 in the UK and somewhat higher at 1.62 in the US.
There are worries that nations may run out of young people to work, pay taxes, and care for the old if fertility rates continue to decline globally.
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Elon Musk, a tech mogul, has long warned of a population collapse brought on by a baby boom in the West and America.
Musk claims to be “always banging the baby drum” and has 14 offspring with four different mothers.
In the past, he claimed that low birth rates lead to a lack of workers, more debt, strained pension and healthcare systems, and general societal instability.
He even went so far as to refer to it as the “greatest risk to the future of civilization.”
