Who will succeed Angela Merkel as Chancellor of Germany? According to polls, the CDU is facing a catastrophic defeat in Germany’s election.
ANGELA MERKEL is standing down as Chancellor ahead of the German federal elections this year. Ms Merkel’s replacement, according to the latest surveys and odds, appears to be Olaf Scholz of the rival Social Democratic Party (SPD).
As a member of the Christian Democratic Union, Angela Merkel has won four national elections in a row in Germany (CDU). The CDU and its partnership with the Christian Social Union (CSU) govern Germany in coalition with the SPD under Ms Merkel’s leadership. However, based on current polling data and chances, the CDU’s Chancellor candidate, Armin Laschet, appears unlikely to succeed Ms Merkel as leader of the government in September’s federal election.
SPD’s Olaf Scholz is currently the clear favorite to succeed Angela Merkel as Chancellor, according to Smarkets Politics Prices.
Over the last four weeks, Mr Scholz’s prospects have climbed from three percent to a startling 55 percent with Smarkets.
Over the same time frame, Mr Laschet’s odds have dropped from 85 percent to only 39 percent.
The SPD is likewise a 63 percent favorite to win the most Bundestag seats in this election.
The SPD had a one percent probability of winning the most seats at the beginning of August.
While the CDU hopes to keep power in this election, a coalition with the SPD at the helm appears to be a significant possibility.
A coalition of the SPD, Greens, and FDP is presently trading as a 25% favorite, according to Smarkets.
“Back in the Spring, the markets gave the Greens’ Annalena Baerbock a one-in-three chance of succeeding Merkel as Chancellor, but their poll ratings haven’t held up, and it now looks like a two-horse race between the SPD’s Scholz and the CDU’s Laschet,” Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Political Markets, said.
“The question of which parties will form the next government is still up in the air, with a ‘traffic light’ coalition of SPD, Greens, and FDP now appearing to be the most likely outcome.
“The present grand coalition of the SPD and CDU/CSU has a tiny chance of surviving, with Smarkets rating it at roughly 14% likely.”
According to polling statistics, Germany will have a German Chancellor who is not a member of the CDU for the first time in over 15 years.
Data from the Politico Poll of Polls as of August 31. “Brinkwire News in Condensed Form.”