Due to the worldwide aviation fuel crisis, vacationers are in a lottery when it comes to summer travel, with certain carriers better positioned than others to avoid the expected flying disruption.
According to a Daily Mail analysis, the airline a passenger booked with may have a significant impact on their likelihood of interruption.
Turkish Airlines languishes at the bottom of the rating, having previously halted 23 foreign routes, while Jet2 leads the airline resilience rankings, according to our survey of ten main carriers used by UK travellers.
Fears of severe fuel shortages connected to the Iranian conflict and interruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for oil tankers, have prompted the warning of widespread aircraft cancellations and disruptions.
Due to interruption brought on by the Middle East crisis, jet fuel prices doubled from around $100 (£73) per barrel in late February to about $200 (£146) per barrel in early April.
Using the aviation information platform My Flight Path, the study assessed major airlines based on schedule consistency and fuel hedging.
Airlines that engage in fuel hedging lock in future fuel prices ahead of time. It is typically a dry accounting technique hidden in business papers.
However, it can determine which airlines are under pressure and which have enough breathing room to maintain their summer schedules when oil and jet fuel prices soar.
Iframes are not supported by your browser.
As the aviation fuel crisis persists, a plane touched down at Brussels Airport in Belgium last Friday.
Under normal circumstances, fuel expenses make up 20–30% of an airline’s operating costs.
With a score of 91 out of 100, Jet2—the third-biggest airline in Britain—took the top spot. It had already secured almost 85% of its fuel supplies for 2026 and had not announced any scheduling adjustments.
Additionally, the vacation airline has about £2 billion in net cash and £3.3 billion in total cash.
“This report recognises Jet2’s financial strength, strongly hedged position, and industry-leading excellence in taking people on their vacation without making cancellations,” a Jet2 representative told the Mail.
Based only on publicly available financial filings and operational data, the My Flight Path index assigns a score to each airline based on two factors:
Fuel Score (60%): Blended full-year hedge coverage based on verified quarterly or half-year data instead of only summer-peak data. A full-year blended percentage is calculated by averaging the coverage disclosed by airlines by half or quarter. The blended coverage percentage, shown as a figure out of 100, is equivalent to the Fuel Score.
timetable Score (40%): Based on verified public announcements, flight capacity variations from the pre-crisis planned timetable. The starting score is 100.
Deductions: -15 for subsidiary or short bans only (1–5 routes).
•30 for many named route exits or significant capacity reduction.
Significant capacity reduction or network shrinkage (10–20 routes): −45.
Severe network withdrawal: −60 (more than 20 routes, suspensions for several years).
+5 (maximum at 100) is added for confirmed capacity expansion of 5% or greater.
This measure does not include financial health as a rated dimension. There isn’t a straight comparable indicator because airline balance sheets vary so much in terms of size, structure, fiscal year-end, and disclosure practices. The airline’s individual analysis section notes situations in which the financial condition significantly impacts the backdrop, such as a carrier with robust fuel hedges but a profit warning.
The most recent public disclosures as of May 2026 are used to determine all scores. Jet2, Ryanair, easyJet, Wizz Air, and Norwegian hedge coverage percentages are derived from verified primary filings. Figures from TUI and Lufthansa are based on verified seasonal or annual disclosures. Fuel data from IAG and British Airways is only disclosed at the group level; BA does not reveal its hedging strategy separately from its parent. Investor disclosures are used to assess Turkish Airlines’ hedge statistics. The index does not forecast any airline’s future operating choices; instead, it gauges protection levels using data that has been made public.
“We have made it very clear that we are looking forward to running our planned flight and holiday schedule as usual this summer, allowing our customers to enjoy their well-earned vacations.”
“There has never been a better time to book one of our flights or vacations because we are a strong, stable company with a long history of being a consumer champion. We were the first airline and tour operator to announce that we will not introduce surcharges.”
With over 82% of its 2026 fuel hedged at £49 per barrel—among the lowest locked-in rates of any carrier worldwide—budget behemoth Ryanair is not far behind at 89 out of 100.
EasyJet is likewise in the “well protected” category (86 out of 100). In the first half of 2026, 84% of the company’s fuel was hedged, and in the second half, 70%.
A score that is comfortably in the low-risk category but below Ryanair and Jet2 reflects the falling hedging profile through the second half of the year.
The airline has declared that there will be no schedule adjustments and has £602 million in net cash and £4.8 billion in total liquidity.
EasyJet CEO Kenton Jarvis stated: “I want our customers to book with confidence this summer.”
“We are looking forward to taking millions of people on their well-deserved holidays this summer, and we are operating as normal with no changes or cancellations.”
With a score of 84 out of 100, TUI is in the “well protected” tier. This is due to its excellent fuel hedging position and the lack of confirmed schedule cuts, which are the index’s two main inputs.
Because advance bookings for summer 2026 are about 7% fewer than the corresponding period from the previous year, its score is somewhat lower.
According to a representative, the airline is “well prepared for the current summer season” and “remain fully focused on ensuring that all holidays for our British guests go ahead as planned.”
“The most striking finding in this index is not which airlines come bottom, but which ones come top,” stated Jono Oates of My Flight Path.
The top four carriers—Jet2, Ryanair, easyJet, and TUI—are all rated “well protected” and account for over half of all UK summer departures.
The bulk of British vacationers will be transported by them this summer, and they are considerably better insulated than a few of the bigger international network airlines below them on the metric that counts most this season—how much of their fuel cost is locked in.
“None of the four have announced schedule cuts for the summer, and all have locked in the majority of their 2026 fuel requirements at rates well below current spot prices.”
Operating without sufficient fuel protection carries a real risk.
Iframes are not supported by your browser.
Spirit Airlines, a US airline, stopped operations earlier this month. leaving 17,000 workers unemployed and an estimated 600,000 passengers stuck.
For the year when fuel prices more than doubled, the airline had not hedged any of its fuel.
Air France-KLM (76), WizzAir (74), British Airways (65), Lufthansa (64), and Norwegian (62) are in the “moderately protected” category.
Air France-KLM has already undertaken operational changes in anticipation of an additional £1.8 billion fuel cost exposure in 2026.
80 return flights were cancelled by KLM in May, however the airline claimed that this represented “less than 1%” of its flying schedule.
While Air France’s schedule has mostly remained the same, the group’s subsidiary carrier Transavia has reduced flights.
“At this stage, Air France has no cancellations due to rising paraffin prices or shortages,” a spokesman stated.
Wizz Air has a respectable hedged fuel position but less financial protection than its rivals, despite issuing a £43 million profit warning in April.
With an average yearly percentage of 62%, British Airways’ score indicates a hedging position that significantly deteriorates over the course of the year.
This year, parent firm IAG anticipates spending about £1.7 billion more on fuel than anticipated, with total fuel expenses expected to reach £7.8 billion.
Last week, airline CEO Luis Gallego issued a warning, stating that all airlines “need to increase fares in order to mitigate the impact” of rising fuel prices.
“Our hedging strategy has protected the business from the shorter-term impact of the recent major increases in jet fuel prices,” a spokesman stated.
Lufthansa is significantly protected from the worst fuel price situations and has some of the best fuel protection.
However, because its fuel expenses have already caused significant schedule adjustments, its score is close to the bottom of the moderately protected class.
Iframes are not supported by your browser.
With over 20,000 fewer trips in the 2026 network, Lufthansa is eliminating 27 CityLine regional aircraft from its schedule, grounding certain 747-400s, and retiring A340-600s early.
With only 43% of its 2026 gasoline currently locked in at lower prices, Norwegian has some of the lowest fuel security, placing it toward the bottom of the moderately protected tier.
Turkish Airlines, which is supported by the state, is classified as “less protected” (46/100).
Since May 2026, the carrier has reduced almost 100 weekly flights and suspended 23 international routes, making it the carrier with the biggest network loss in this index.
Certain routes in Africa have been suspended till March 2027.
The rankings do not guarantee disruption. However, it does highlight which airlines are better equipped to handle rising fuel prices and which have less leeway in the event that costs increase once more.
Airlines that purchased fuel early at reduced prices are safeguarded when prices remain high. Those with less hedging might have to reduce schedules, increase fees, impose surcharges, or eliminate weaker routes.
“The counterintuitive finding is that the airlines best known for cheap fares, rather than financial sophistication, turn out to be among the best protected this summer,” Mr. Oates stated. Although fuel hedging is an unglamorous task, it is currently more important than nearly anything an airline does.
The difference between the top and bottom of this index is greater than most people would anticipate. Although they have a thinner buffer against further shocks, airlines with less fuel protection won’t necessarily cancel your flight.
When a carrier has 85% of its fuel locked in as opposed to 40%, a second fuel increase, an operational disruption, or a severe weather season will affect it significantly differently.
Before making a reservation, people spend hours comparing fares. Beneath annual reports that no one outside the investing sector reads, this data is accessible to the public. This is about turning it into something a family can look at before making a reservation.
Before making a reservation, travellers should find out if the airline of their choice has made any announcements on schedule adjustments.
Additionally, while booking with an airline in the elevated-risk tier, travellers are encouraged to think about whether they are purchasing a flexible fare.
Passengers are entitled to rerouting or a complete refund in the event that a flight is cancelled. Unless the airline can depend on exceptional circumstances, financial compensation may also be applicable.
When purchasing a package vacation, travellers should confirm if their trip is covered by Atol. Customers are financially covered in the event that an airline or travel agency collapses because the majority of UK package holidays are.
An additional degree of security could be offered by travel insurance that covers airline failure or cancellation.
First. Jet2: 91/100 (Highly Secure)
The third-biggest airline in Britain in terms of passengers has a balance sheet that is comparable to carriers twice its size and an enormous hedge book. With summer 2026 explicitly covered at 87% at $707 a metric tonne—the highest confirmed summer coverage ratio in this index—Jet2 has locked in about 85% of its fuel for 2026 on a blended basis. This number accurately depicts the airline’s primary operating season because it is primarily a summer leisure carrier. Capacity is increasing by 7.7%, and no schedule reductions have been reported.
Two. Ryanair: 89 out of 100 (Well Protected)
Reduced rates and additional fees are the foundation of Ryanair’s brand. The treasury operation that powers it gets less attention. The airline has a rolling forward contract technique that continuously locks in costs substantially below spot prices, making it one of the most disciplined fuel hedging programs in commercial aviation. About 82% of Ryanair’s fuel needs for 2026 are hedged on a blended basis, with 80% of its FY27 needs (starting in April 2026) locked in at roughly $67 per barrel ($528 per metric tonne), which is among the lowest locked-in rates of any airline worldwide. Seat capacity is increasing by 6%, and no timetable cuts have been announced.
Third. EasyJet: 86 out of 100 (Well Protected)
EasyJet has a full-year blended position significantly ahead of several network carriers thanks to its methodical hedging policy, which spans both halves of the year. EasyJet has hedged 70% of its H2 and 84% of its H1 fuel for 2026, both at about $706 per metric tonne, for a blended 77% for the entire year. With a 3% increase in seat capacity and £602 million in net cash and £4.8 billion in total liquidity, it has confirmed that there would be no schedule cutbacks.
Four. TUI: 84 out of 100 (Well Protected)
Tui’s score of 84/100, which puts it in the well-protected tier, is a result of its excellent fuel hedging position and the lack of confirmed schedule cuts, which are the index’s two main inputs. In order to provide a blended full-year coverage of roughly 73%, Tui has hedged 83% of its summer 2026 jet fuel needs, falling to 62% for Winter 2026–2027. There are no confirmed schedule cuts for the summer of 2026. Demand, not supply, is the main factor affecting Tui’s situation. Forward reservations for summer 2026 are almost 7% lower than the same period last year, indicating a little decline in customer trust. This has no bearing on the airline’s capacity to protect fuel or run its schedule as scheduled.
Fifth. 76/100 (Moderately Protected) for Air France-KLM
Despite what its score might immediately indicate, Air France-KLM is in a better financial situation going into the summer. As of Q1 2026, the group earned €884 million in positive operating cash flow and held €10.6 billion in total liquidity, exceeding its stated target range of €6–8 billion. A hedging position that sharply decreases over the course of the year is reflected in the moderate score. A blended full-year 2026 coverage of over 70% has been reported by Air France-KLM; however, the quarterly profile is inconsistent, with roughly 70% in Q1–Q2, 60% in Q3, and 50% in Q4. The Q2 effective price is $1,260 per metric tonne, which is much more than the values that the UK low-cost carriers have set. Operational changes have been prompted by an additional $2.4 billion fuel cost exposure in 2026. While mainline Air France’s schedule has been mostly maintained, KLM has stopped Middle East operations through May and reduced its Transavia subsidiary.
Sixth. Wizz Air: 74 out of 100 (Moderately Protected)
Wizz Air is at the top of the moderately protected class with a score of 74/100. Although the airline has publicly confirmed 70% summer coverage at about $700 per metric tonne, its summer 2026 fuel position is stronger than its full-year figure indicates. However, the blended full-year FY27 position, which covers April 2026 onwards, is about 57%, indicating lower coverage in the second half of the year. One of the carriers in this index that is expanding the fastest is Wizz Air, whose network in Central and Eastern Europe is driving a 17% increase in capacity in the summer of 2026. There are no verified route cuts. It is important to note the financial context: in April 2026, a €50 million profit warning was issued, and full-year projections indicated effectively breakeven profitability. Wizz Air has the smallest margin cushion of any carrier in this index, according to Morningstar. These indicators show that the airline’s operational delivery has less financial cushion behind it than the score alone suggests, but they have no bearing on the assessed components of fuel hedging and schedule stability.
Seven. British Airways: 65 out of 100 (Moderately Protected)
Despite an anticipated €2 billion increase in full-year fuel costs, British Airways’ parent company, IAG, reported Q1 2026 operating profit up 77% to €351 million. The corporation ascribed this outcome, in large part, to its hedging program and ticket recovery. A hedge position that significantly deteriorates over the course of the year is reflected in BA’s score. In Q1, the IAG group was 75% hedged; this percentage dropped to 64% in Q2, 58% in Q3, and 50% in Q4, resulting in a blended yearly figure of roughly 62%. Keep in mind that fuel hedging is disclosed at the IAG group level; BA does not independently reveal its stance. Some group disclosures use the 70% “rest of year” statistic, which overstates the full-year blended coverage and only applies to the post-Q1 period. Compared to many carriers in this ranking, BA has made more significant changes on time: permanent route departures from Jeddah, Cologne, Riga, and Stuttgart; temporary suspension of services in Dubai, Amman, Bahrain, and Tel Aviv through May; and a reduction in overall capacity growth to +1–2%.
Eight. 64/100 (Moderately Protected) for Lufthansa
The distinction between fuel protection and schedule resilience, which is what this index is intended to quantify, is demonstrated by Lufthansa’s score. Lufthansa is significantly protected from the worst fuel price scenarios because around 80% of its 2026 fuel is hedged on a blended basis, one of the highest ratios in this index. However, its score is close to the bottom of the tier that is modestly protected. Despite the hedging, the magnitude of the fuel cost increase—an extra €1.7 billion in 2026—has prompted significant timetable action. Lufthansa is grounding several 747-400s, early-retiring A340-600s, and eliminating 27 CityLine regional aircraft from its schedule. With almost 20,000 flights eliminated from the 2026 network, overall ASK growth has been reduced from an anticipated 4% to 0–2%. Bydgoszcz, Rzesławów, and Stavanger are designated permanent route exits; short-haul services from Munich and Frankfurt have been drastically reduced. Travellers on impacted regional and short-haul routes should see if their particular service has already been taken from the itinerary. Because the capacity reductions are concentrated in lower-margin short-haul flying, those on Lufthansa’s long-haul network are mainly unaffected.
Nine. Norwegian: 62/100 (Moderately Protected)
Norwegian has one of the lowest percentages in this index going into the season, with about 43% of its 2026 fuel hedged on a blended basis. In particular, Q2 covers 42% at $679 per metric tonne, followed by the second half at roughly 43% and 2027 at only 22%. The airline is toward the bottom of the moderately protected tier due to its low hedge ratio rather than its schedule. As predicted, Norwegian’s situation is improving: summer 2026 capacity is increasing by 5–6%, with the airline’s main confirmed changes being the suspension of planned services to Tel Aviv and Beirut and the cancellation of its Dubai service. With hedging profits, a record Q1 load factor of 87.6%, and a 22% decrease in fuel prices year over year, Q1 2026 operating results demonstrated real progress, with the operating deficit improving to NOK −220 million from NOK −611 million in the previous year.
Ten. Turkish Airlines: 46 out of 100 (Less Protected)
A mixed image is presented by Turkish Airlines. The airline had one of the best quarterly results among the airlines in this index with revenue of $5.9 billion (+21% year-over-year) and net profit of $226 million in the first quarter of 2026. It has the support of the state and a sizable fleet with an average lifespan of 9.8 years. But as of May 2026, Turkish Airlines has reduced more than 100 weekly flights and stopped 23 international routes, making it the carrier with the most network loss in this rating. Due to the suspension of certain African routes, such as Juba, Kinshasa, and Luanda, until March 2027, these withdrawals are essentially multi-year rather than short-term. Although Turkish Airlines does not release detailed hedging data, management acknowledged during the Q1 2026 earnings call that the airline is hedging about 40% of fuel consumption and is abandoning its standard hedging strategy, which involves adding contracts opportunistically rather than through methodical forward coverage.
