Scottish independence: John Curtice says poll comes with warning signs

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Scotland’s top pollster has said recent polls could show growth in support for Scottish independence ‘going in reverse’.

Sir John Curtice said the latest monthly poll of Scottish voting intentions, from Savanta ComRes, has a “mixed message” for nationalists.

The poll found that support for Scottish Independence has dropped for the first time in three months – with 47 per cent of Scots intending to vote Yes, 42 per cent voting No, and 10 per cent undecided.

READ THE STORY: John Curtice: The independence movement has, at best, been treading water during the winter

Writing exclusively in The ‘s Voice Live, a new project bringing exclusive, digital analysis to subscribers, the professor of politics said the independence movement has “at best been treading water during the winter”.

Chris Hopkins, associate director at Savanta ComRes, said: “Our latest Holyrood poll for The Scotsman has some interesting changes from last month, most notably in the proportions saying the SNP ‘is divided’ rising by six points and, simultaneously, ‘is united’ dropping by eight points.

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“These figures naturally have coincided with the ongoing Salmond inquiry and while there appears to be very little direct impact on the SNP in terms of the Holyrood voting intention, we do see a four-point drop in the indyref2 voting intention, although Yes still lead by six points.”

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “With 21 consecutive polls showing majority support for independence, it is clear that Scotland’s future must be in Scotland’s hands – not Boris Johnson’s.

“People in Scotland have the right to decide their own future, in a post-pandemic referendum. The issue at the very heart of the election in May will be who has the right to decide what sort of country we should be after the pandemic – the people of Scotland or Boris Johnson?

“Scotland can reject Brexit, Tory austerity cuts and Westminster governments we don’t vote for – and choose to build a strong, fair and equal recovery as an independent country.

“While polls are encouraging, the SNP will not take anything for granted. The only way to guarantee Scotland can decide our own future is with both votes going to the SNP in May.”

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