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RBA sets out three scenarios for outlook


The Reserve Bank has set out three scenarios for the economic outlook in its latest quarterly statement on monetary policy given the “high degree of uncertainty” caused by the impact of the coronavirus.


* This assumes heightened restrictions in Victoria are in place for no more than six weeks as announced, while restrictions are gradually lifted in other parts of the country. Under this scenario the economy contracts by around six per cent over 2020, but then grows by around five per cent over 2021. The unemployment rate peaks at around 10 per cent in December and then gradually declines to around seven per cent over the next couple of years.


* Faster progress is made controlling the virus. A series of positive health outcomes would help limit the damage to consumer and business confidence and support a more rapid economic recovery. The unemployment rate would peak at a lower level and decline faster than in the baseline scenario.


* Australia faces further periods of virus outbreaks and heightened restrictions, and the world experiences a widespread resurgence in infections in the near term. Domestic activity would take much longer to recover, resulting in the unemployment rate remaining close to its peak throughout 2021.

(Source: RBA quarterly statement on monetary policy)

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