Poll: Brexit Party will win more votes than Labour and Conservatives COMBINED in European elections

The Brexit Party will earn more votes than Labour and the Conservatives combined in the European Parliament elections, and could even beat the Tories in a General election, two extraordinary polls revealed this morning.

In an Opinium poll in the Observer, focused on this month’s European elections, Nigel Farage’s new party is predicted to hoover up 34 per cent of the vote. The same poll gave Labour 21 per cent and put the Tories in a miserable fourth place with 11 per cent

But an even more extraordinary poll, commissioned by a Brexit Party donor and published in the Sunday Telegraph, said for the first time the Brexit Party would beat the Tories in a General Election.

The ComRes survey of voting intentions put Brexit on 21 per cent to the Conservatives’ 20, which would see Farage’s team win 49 seats, becoming the UK’s second biggest party after Labour, with 137. 

Andrew Hawkins, the chairman of ComRes, described the poll as a ‘disaster’, adding: ‘If the Conservative leadership contenders are not careful, there will be no party for them to lead.’

It will deepen the panic spreading among Tory members, as more than 600 Tory association chairmen, councillors, donors and activists, wrote to the Telegraph to warn that if Mrs May cannot deliver a clean exit, MPs must replace her urgently or ‘risk disaster’.

They wrote: ‘Voters could not be clearer in saying how angry and betrayed they feel – Conservative voters most of all. The damage that this is doing to party and country is incalculable.’

The polls follow calamitous council elections, where Mrs May oversaw the loss of nearly 1,300 Tory councillors, and comes ahead of a predicted wipeout in the European elections in the next fortnight.

The poll shows the Conservatives would lose 46 seats to the Brexit Party, dethroning Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt, Health Secretary Matt Hancock and party chairman Brandon Lewis.

And Labour would take the scalps of Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan Smith and Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee, with the Tories retaining support from less than half of those who voted for them in 2017.

Jeremy Corbyn would be able to lead a minority government with 27% support, leaving the Brexit Party with 20% and the Conservatives 19% support, according to the poll commissioned by Brexit Express.

Brexit Express is a campaign group run by Jeremy Hosking, a major Tory donor who has now given £200,000 to Mr Farage’s party. 

Depending on how the votes were distributed, if the polls’ predictions are right, the country could see another hung parliament, with deals between party leaders being made to form a coalition government – or a minority government being formed, with no party having an overall majority.

Nigel Farage has said that his new party would ‘break the two-party system’, claiming that ‘millions of people would give up on’ the two major parties if Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn reached a Brexit deal. 

Appearing at a rally on May 11 while campaigning in Sunderland, Mr Farage told his supporters that Mrs May’s Brexit deal is ‘like a surrender document of a nation that has been defeated in war’. 

Mr Farage met with former Tory MP Ann Widdecombe and spoke at a party event at the 2000-seat Rainton Meadows Arena in Houghton this afternoon, and was cheered by hundreds of people at the rally where he lambasted both the Tory government and the Labour leadership. 

Mr Farage said: ‘It (Brexit) hasn’t happened partly because of the dishonest, duplicitous and utterly useless Prime Minister in Theresa May.

‘No question, she is the worst Prime Minister in the history of this country, bar none.’

He told the rally Mrs May’s deal would be a new EU treaty ‘that will cost us, for reasons I’ve yet to understand, £39 billion… a treaty that may well leave us trapped inside the EU’s custom union in perpetuity’.

He added: ‘This treaty that she wants to put through is more like a surrender document of a nation that has been defeated in war.’ 

‘She has humiliated our country on the international stage and I’ve had enough of it.’

According to the Opinium poll, the strongest force among the anti-Brexit parties appears to be the Liberal Democrats, who are slated to win just 12% of votes in the European elections – one point ahead of the Conservatives.  

The Greens would score just eight per cent in the European elections, followed by UKIP and the SNP on four per cent and Change UK on just three per cent, the data says. 

Two weeks ago Mr Farage’s party was tied with Jeremy Corbyn’s on 28%, but a campaign of rallies across the country – often targeting traditionally Labour-voting areas in northern England – seems to be growing more and more support for the former UKIP leader. 

Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, said Mr Farage was capitalising on a clear pro-Brexit position, whilst Remain supporters are forced to choose between several parties – although 57% would like to see a pro-Remain alliance.

He said: ‘On the European elections, while the question of which party Brexit voters should back was settled some time ago, the equivalent for Remain voters is still ambiguous.

‘The picture is most stark when we split out Leave and Remain voters – while 63% of Leavers say they will vote for the Brexit Party in the European elections, the most popular party among Remainers (still Labour) only has 31% versus 22% for the Lib Dems and 14% for the Greens.

‘Interestingly, Brexit voters have deserted the Tories to such an extent that the Conservatives actually have a higher share of the European vote among Remainers (12%) than among Leavers (11%).’

Meanwhile, voting intentions for the Westminster elections show the Brexit Party would also be snapping at the Tories’ heels in a general election.

Labour is out in front with 28% support, followed by the Tories on 22%, the survey shows, but the Brexit Party is just behind on 21%.

Mr Drummond said it was ‘remarkable’ the new party could be on the cusp of overtaking the party of government.

Although Mr Drummond cautioned the European election in less than two weeks could be ‘bleeding into’ and ‘inflating’ the Westminster results, he said the level of support was still notable.

‘It would be reasonable to assume that this would fall back in an actual general election campaign, but the fact a party that is less than six months old is now vying with the governing party for second place is remarkable,’ he said.

‘The Tories’ reliance on Leave voters seemed sensible in the aftermath of the referendum.

‘But raising expectations of the kind of deal the UK could get and using the phrase ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ so relentlessly was always going to open the party up to this kind of challenge once those expectations could not be met.’

The two main parties, Labour and the Conservatives, continue to drop votes, with Labour falling five points and the Tories four in the last fortnight.

But the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats are reaping the rewards of public frustration and are both on the up, with the former rising five points and the latter four – taking the Lib Dems to fourth place with 11%. 

The Brexit Party’s Twitter page has repeatedly posted a clip of Labour peer Andrew Adonis speaking on LBC, saying: ‘If you’re a Brexiteer, I hope you won’t vote for the Labour Party because the Labour Party is moving increasingly against Brexit’. 

Writing in the Mail on Sunday, Mrs May last week made a desperate appeal to Jeremy Corbyn to ‘do a deal’ to help push through her Brexit deal – offering concessions to Labour on policies such as a customs union, angering Leavers within her own party.

Eurosceptics reacted with fury to the plan for a so-called ‘customs framework’ or ‘customs arrangement’, describing it as ‘abject surrender’.

This latest poll appears to show a dissatisfaction with both Labour and the Tories, who suffered losses in the local elections earlier this month. 

The poll will likely add to the pressure that is rising within Mrs May’s party for her to set a departure date. 

The Prime Minister is set to meet with the executive of the Conservative backbencher 1922 Committee next week, where it is thought the PM and her MPs will come to an ‘understanding’ as to when she will leave No 10. 

The Opinium poll featured data from 2,004 people, taken online between May 8 and May 10.

By and for MailOnline 

Nigel Farage has today joined a growing list of politicians to suffer a food fail as he awkwardly scoffed a fruit loaf while out campaigning in Sunderland.

The former UKIP leader was pictured gurning horribly with his mouth wide open as he bit into the slice of cake.

Another snap showed the Brexiteer’s tongue dangling from his mouth as he finished off the baked treat before washing it down with a cup of tea.  

Farage is in the pro-Leave city kick-starting a Brexit Party rally after a week of controversy that saw him accused of fleeing the scene of a car crash.

He told his supporters today Theresa May’s Brexit deal is ‘like a surrender document of a nation that has been defeated in war’.

It comes ahead of the European elections on May 23, in which the Brexit Party is hoping to capitalise on any loss of faith in the mainstream political parties.

Mr Farage joins the likes of Ed Miliband, Theresa May and David Cameron to be caught awkwardly tucking into food during a campaign trail.

Mrs May looked decidedly uncomfortable as she tried to work out how to eat a bag of chips with cameras trained on her in Cornwall during the run-up to the 2017 General Election. 

The tricky moment was reminiscent of Ed Miliband’s ‘bacon sandwich’ moment from 2014, when photographers capture him pulling a hilarious face while tucking into breakfast in the run-up to local elections. 

David Cameron was also mocked in 2015 when he used a knife and fork to eat a hot dog during a campaign event – in an apparent effort to avoid falling into the same trap as Mr Miliband. He was forced to deny his style of eating showed he was posh. 

Farage met with former Tory MP Ann Widdecombe and spoke at a party event at the 2000-seat Rainton Meadows Arena in Houghton this afternoon. 

Mr Farage and Ms Widdecombe, who is standing in the European elections this month, were also joined by Brexit Party chairman Richard Tice and other election hopefuls from the North East including Brian Monteith, John Tennant and Richard Monaghan.

In March, Mr Farage, 55, led a crowd of 200 Brexit supporters on a 270-mile march from Sunderland to London and arrived in Parliament Square on March 29 – the day Britain was scheduled to leave the EU. 

Mr Farage was cheered by hundreds of people at the rally today in Houghton-le-Spring – which was also showed a preview of the party’s new election broadcast.

Mr Farage lambasted both the Tory government and the Labour leadership but made no mention of reports he left the scene of a collision between his chauffeur-driven car and another vehicle in Kent on Thursday.

Mr Farage said: ‘It (Brexit) hasn’t happened partly because of the dishonest, duplicitous and utterly useless Prime Minister in Theresa May.

‘No question, she is the worst Prime Minister in the history of this country, bar none.’

He told the rally Mrs May’s deal would be a new EU treaty.

‘A treaty that will cost us, for reasons I’ve yet to understand, £39 billion,’ he said.

‘A treaty that may well leave us trapped inside the EU’s custom union in perpetuity.

‘This treaty that she wants to put through is more like a surrender document of a nation that has been defeated in war.’

Mr Farage said: ‘She has humiliated our country on the international stage and I’ve had enough of it. ‘

He told the North East audience they had also been betrayed by the ‘London led Labour party’ and local MPs.

He said: ‘Those MPs look down upon you, they think you’re morons, they tell you you didn’t know what you voted for.

‘Can I say on your behalf, and on behalf of leavers across all of the United Kingdom, to hell with you, we knew what we were voting for.’

Former Tory minister Ann Widdecombe was cheered in the packed hall when she decried ‘those patronising, snooty nincompoops who sit in their dinner parties and say ‘poor dears, they didn’t know what they were voting for’.

She said: ‘We knew exactly what we were voting for.’

Ms Widdecombe said: ‘The message of those local elections and the message of these European elections is really simply. Either those at Westminster let Britain leave or we make them leave.’

She said: ‘If they don’t take us out of the EU then, come the next general election, the Brexit Party will take over Westminster and take us out of the EU.’     

Party chairman Mr Tice told the Sunderland Echo: ‘We are expecting a huge crowd on Saturday because it was a very strong Leave-voting area and of course we started the March to Leave in Sunderland.

‘In the North East there is a huge number of people who feel betrayed by the Labour Party and we’ve seen from the local elections that voters are now looking elsewhere.

‘Our party plans to take on the establishment which has failed to deliver Brexit.’

He added: ‘Instead we have all sorts of backroom deals going on between Labour and the Consevatives and it seems like the majority of candidates are Remain.’

The event, which starts at 2pm, will see six speakers including Mr Farage and Ms Widdecombe as well as the local candidates.

It comes at the end of a controversial week for Mr Farage, where he was accused of walking away from a car crash involving a 13-month-old boy, as well as becoming embroiled in a row over his numerous appearances on the BBC.

It emerged last night that Mr Farage allegedly ‘upped and left’ after his chauffeur-driven Range Rover crashed into a Jaguar carrying a father and his son on Thursday morning.

Pub landlord Patrick Tranter, 38, and son George both went to hospital to receive treatment. 

Mr Tranter told The Sun: ‘He lives two miles away and loves a pint, but he won’t get one from me. Man of the people, my arse.

‘As far as I’m concerned he’s barred.’

But Mr Farage last night denied the allegations, claiming he checked nobody was hurt, before adding: ‘If I’m banned, then it’s not too terrible is it?’

Mr Tranter, who has been visited by Mr Farage at the George and Dragon pub in Westerham, Kent in the past, had dropped his wife at the station and was driving home when the two cars collided in Titsey.

Mr Tranter, whose 1986 Jaguar Series 3 Sovereign was written off, added: ‘We crashed with an enormous bang. Farage could not possibly have failed to hear George screaming. I ran out to see if my little boy was OK.

‘Farage stepped out of the Range Rover, collected his bag from the boot and walked off.

‘He didn’t have the common decency to see if we were OK, and never even looked back.’

But Mr Farage hit back last night, saying: ‘The driver of the other car was abusive. He was swearing very loudly and after accidents people do all sorts of things. It was a pretty full-on smash and I understand why people can be a bit shocked.

‘Once I had ascertained that everyone was OK I made a discreet withdrawal from the situation.

‘Had anybody been hurt I would have stayed and waited for the ambulance. I didn’t hear his child screaming so I walked up the road.’   

A Brexit Party spokesman added: ‘The car was in a non-fault accident. Nigel wasn’t driving it. Nigel continued his journey in a different car.

‘The driver did remain at the scene. The police did attend and details were exchanged. It was a minor shunt.’  

The Brexiteer was also dragged into a war of words over the pulling of last night’s Have I Got News For You.

The show was postponed just minutes before it was due to air over fears it would breach election impartiality rules by having Change UK leader Heidi Allen as a guest.

BBC editorial guidelines around election periods do not allow programmes where ‘equal representation’ is not achieved.

The BBC said the episode will be broadcast ‘at a later date’. 

Ms Allen, who left the Conservative Party earlier this year to join pro-Remain Change UK, called for an explanation from the BBC.

She tweeted: ‘Maybe I’m just not as funny as Nigel Farage eh #hignfy @haveigotnews!?

‘He’s so funny, he seems to be on the BBC all the time! An explanation would be appreciated, not least to acknowledge the hard work of the entire crew who worked diligently to put the show together.’

Many social media users voiced their concerns that the BBC had featured Mr Farage on Question Time earlier this week, with some calling it an ‘interesting decision’ and others saying it is the ‘rankest hypocrisy’.

One social media user posted: ‘Has anybody told #Ofcom about Nigel Farage’s revolving door to #BBCQT?’ 

A BBC spokesman told MailOnline: ‘The BBC has specific editorial guidelines that apply during election periods.  

‘Because of this it would be inappropriate to feature political party leaders on entertainment programmes during this short election period, which does not allow for equal representation to be achieved. 

‘So we will not broadcast the scheduled episode of HIGNFY featuring Heidi Allen, leader of Change UK. We will look to broadcast this episode at a later date.’ 

When asked over the difference between Ms Allen’s appearance on HIGNFY and Mr Farage’s on Question Time, the spokesperson added: ‘The statement refers to appearance during entertainment programmes during this short election period, which does not allow for equal representation to be achieved.

‘Question Time is a political debate programme, which has representatives from various different political parties.’ 

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