According to opinion polls, Australia’s two-party system may disappear in the upcoming federal election.
One Nation received 28% of primary support, surpassing Labor for the first time, according to a study conducted by the polling firm DemosAu and completed by 1,502 respondents between May 15 and May 20.
The coalition received 23% of the vote, while Labor received 26%.
George Hasanakos, research director at DemosAu, predicted that Australia would have a hung parliament if polling remained consistent with this study.
A split right, where voters of all stripes are gravitating toward “populist” views, is likely to produce a minority administration unlike anything Australia has ever seen.
Compared to a national newspaper survey that was conducted from May 14 to May 17 with a sample size of 1,252, the DemosAu results are more favorable to One Nation.
One Nation was up three points from the April poll at 25%, while Labor was at 31%, according to Newspoll.
Labor received 29% of the primary vote, according to a Resolve poll, while One Nation increased by two percentage points to 24%.
One Nation has a 28% primary support percentage, according to a survey (shown, One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson posing at the Farrer by-election reception).
Votes were most likely to split on the political right, according to University of Canberra historian Frank Bongiorno (pictured), but the left was not exempt.
According to Mr. Hasanakos, Australia was probably moving away from a system where major parties relied on independents and minor parties to rule, and a more complicated structure of governance was probably going to take shape.
In the 2025 federal election, Labor won 34.6% of the primary vote, while the coalition won 31.8%.
One Nation did not gain any seats despite receiving 6.4% of the vote.
“One Nation’s stances on wages are probably attracting people who are more like a traditional Labor voter, despite it being a right-wing populist party,” said University of Canberra historian Frank Bongiorno, pointing out that Australia’s politics were still impacted by the 2008 global financial crisis.
“The party has a poor record of being able to keep its politicians in the tent once elected,” he said, adding that One Nation’s capacity to continue upending politics depended largely on its ability to stabilize itself before the next election.
Polling tends to change until closer to election time, and the next federal election is not anticipated until May 2028.
According to Mr. Bongiorno, the Anthony administration unveiled a “ambitious” federal budget.
What does the rise of One Nation tell us about Australians’ faith in established political parties?
According to Professor Bongiorno, any survey findings and responses to the recent contentious Federal Budget should also be interpreted in light of Labor’s sizable majority in power.
“The Budget wasn’t designed with current polling in mind, it was designed to engage voters who feel shut out of economic prospects,” he said, adding that Labor had strategically presented an ambitious budget just one year into its second term with two years left to win back voters.
