New battle worries erupt as Putin plots to ‘strike Ukraine’ if it joins NATO.
Russia would invade Ukraine if it joins NATO, according to a Kremlin-connected analyst.
Fyodor Lukyanov, research director at the Valdai International Discussion Club, a Putin-linked think tank, explains why Russian troops are massing along the Ukrainian border in an article. If Nato expands further east, he predicts a “new confrontation.”
Mr. Lukyanov thinks that the risk of a future military war rises dramatically when non-NATO states “like Ukraine” begin to play the same game as other NATO members.
In a column published today, he says: “It’s difficult to believe that the nightmare scenarios concocted by the bloc’s junior partners to frighten their supporters would ever be proven correct.
“They frequently assert that Putin wants to test NATO’s limits by attacking the Baltic republics and Poland.
“In truth, Moscow appears to assume that the bloc will honor its obligations more than those in Riga or Tallinn – but when non-members, such as Ukraine, join in, the likelihood of a future armed clash rises dramatically.”
He sees the current escalation in Eastern Europe as confirmation that the region’s old security assumptions no longer work.
According to Mr. Lukyanov: “The military and political scene has changed as a result of NATO expansion. Keeping things as they are could lead to new disputes, while discarding the notion that the bloc is in charge of everything will necessitate a major rethinking of all strategies “..
He goes on to say that Russia will have to reform the system and establish new “red lines,” such as redefining the Cold War concept of Finlandisation, in which countries retain their sovereignty while remaining out of the “geopolitical fight.”
He cautioned that the “gambit” that led to Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, when Moscow claimed it was provoked, may be repeated in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s intelligence chief, Commander Kyrylo Budanov, reportedly described a probable Russian attack on his country including 100,000 soldiers. According to reports, a ten-pronged onslaught might be launched by the end of January.
The invasion, according to the brigadier general, would include airstrikes and artillery bombardments, with the invasion beginning with an air assault against Ukrainian forces.
Despite Russia’s dismissal of the Ukrainian intelligence report as “hysterical,” Ukrainian intelligence indicates that Russia has deployed 40 “battalion tactical groups” (BTGS) to the border. These are massive troop, armor, and air formations. “Brinkwire News Summary.”