Experts speculate that Ukraine may now have the upper hand in the conflict given Russia’s decision to remove tanks and other heavy military equipment from their Victory Day procession.
More than four years into a conflict that has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and depleted financial resources, the scaled-back May 9 spectacle in Red Square represents a major shift from the customary exhibition of military might.
With waves of drones routinely launched into Moscow, Kyiv has stepped its long-range attacks against military and energy infrastructure far behind the front lines in recent months.
“Against the backdrop of this terrorist threat, every measure is being taken to minimise the danger,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters, citing security concerns as the reason for the modifications.
Analysts, however, think that the true cause goes beyond concerns about safety and instead reflects a greater pressure on Russia’s military as Ukraine intensifies its onslaught.
Keir Giles of Chatham House told the Daily Mail that the action is probably related to challenges on the battlefield.
“We can assume that this is due to any one of a number of reasons all related to the pressure that Russia is under trying to prosecute its war against Ukraine, but Putin hasn’t explained the true reason for a decision like that.”
He noted that Russia might not be able to put on a full-scale show due to significant losses.
A view of Red Square on Victory Day during a military procession
Fearing that Ukraine might launch an attack, Vladimir Putin has removed tanks and other military equipment from Russia’s yearly WW2 parade through Red Square. This could simply indicate that the lack of military units, as some analysts have suggested, is a result of the enormous casualty toll that the meat grinder has taken on Russia’s forces. implying a complete incapacity to put up a parade.
“There are no justifications for Putin’s actions that do not ultimately stem from Russia’s failure to defeat Ukraine.”
Critical infrastructure is currently being targeted by Ukrainian strikes that extend up to 932 miles into Russian territory.
Significant damage to oil production and air defence equipment has been reported, and Moscow seems less and less able to stop these attacks, with economic repercussions starting to materialise.
Former British Army officer Hamish de Bretton Gordon wrote for the Telegraph that Russia’s forces are losing land and suffering unsustainable casualties as the conflict is turning against them.
He claimed that the replacements are ill-trained and, according to reports, comprise ethnic Russian conscripts who are not intended for deployment outside of Russia, increasing losses while contributing little to combat efficiency.
“The reduced parade becomes more than symbolism; it is an admission of decline,” Gordon wrote. “Even after redeploying advanced air defence assets like the S-400 missile system away from the front lines, the Kremlin cannot guarantee the security of its own capital.” He claimed that awareness of these setbacks is spreading throughout Russia and fuelling discontent.
Giles concurred that this shatters the Kremlin’s carefully constructed image of superior military might and exposes a significant Russian weakness.
“If this is being presented as the reason for making the 9th of May parade a less attractive target for Ukraine, then it’s a major admission of weakness and incapacity by the Russian state,” he said. “This is a direct admission of the fact that Ukraine can, in theory, strike directly into the heart of Moscow and threaten a flagship event like this that is a major fixture in the Russian national calendar.”
“It doesn’t fit with the pretence that Russian air defence is effective and can lessen the threat posed by Ukraine’s long-range weapons.”
The Russian defence ministry announced on Telegram on Tuesday night that a number of military schools, cadet corps, “as well as the military hardware column, will not be participating in this year’s military parade due to the current operational situation.”
Thousands of flights were cancelled or delayed as a result of Ukraine’s attempt to disrupt the major event last year by flying swarms of drones at Moscow.
The choice was “logical, given the circumstances,” according to Russian pro-war blogger Alexander Sladkov.
On Friday, May 9, 2025, Russian T-80 BVM tanks move through Red Square as part of Moscow’s Victory Day military procession.
At St. Petersburg, Russia’s Dvortsovaya (Palace) Square, soldiers march in preparation for the Victory Day military parade.Under Putin, the May 9 parade, which honours the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, has grown to be a major set-piece event.
The main historical narrative of Putin’s 25 years in power is World War II, also referred to as the Great Patriotic War in Russia.
In order to defend his onslaught against Ukraine, the former KGB spy frequently cites the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany; Kyiv rejects this as propaganda.
A procession of thousands of servicemen, some of whom had fought in Ukraine, was witnessed in Moscow last year by almost two dozen foreign leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping.
It coincides with Putin’s lowest level of popularity in years. According to a poll conducted by the Kremlin-affiliated FOM polling agency, only 71% of Russians trust their president, which is the lowest percentage in seven years.
In the meantime, Russia is suppressing opposition. Public opposition, including demonstrations against internet censorship, is severely suppressed, and those who speak out against Putin and the war in Ukraine face imprisonment in penal colonies. “Putin and Russian leaders in general are always concerned about the prospects for threats, not from the victims abroad, but from their own population,” Giles explained.
“There are no indications that are discernible from outside Russia that any kind of popular discontent within the country is getting anywhere close to presenting a threat to Putin’s leadership,” he continued.
Since taking office as president or prime minister at the end of 1999, Putin has made numerous promises of stability and discussed the destructive nature of revolutions.
However, the leader recently acknowledged that Russia’s economy was not doing as well as he had anticipated.
The Middle East conflict has increased the nation’s oil revenue, but the president has recently acknowledged that this increase will be temporary.
Elvira Nabiullina, the governor of the Russian central bank, recently stated that “external conditions are now getting worse on an almost constant basis — for both exports and imports,” while Putin recently stated that Russia’s GDP decreased by 1.8% in January and February.
Drone assaults by Ukraine on ports and refineries, along with the suspension of crude deliveries via the sole remaining Russian oil pipeline to Europe, led Russia to cut back on its oil production in April.
Russia may have reduced production by roughly 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day in April compared to the average level observed in the first few months of the year, which might be the worst monthly drop in Russian output in the six years since the Covid-19 outbreak.
