In reshaping the U.K., WALES would be the big loser. As officials decide to break off eight constituencies in Westminster and send them to England, the election map, while Scotland is projected to lose two.
England will gain 10 MPs under plans to make voter demographics more equal across constituencies, while Wales will lose eight. In Scotland, from 59 to 57, the number of MPs will decrease.
After the four national boundary assessments are concluded in 2023, England will have 543 MPs and Wales 32 in time for the next year’s general election.
Northern Ireland will continue to have 18 MPs, but, according to the region’s Boundary Commission, some of the existing boundaries could change as part of the plans.
The Office for National Statistics has provided the most recent data on the votes on which the analysis will be based. It is estimated that 47.5 million voters will be divided into 650 districts, ranging from 69,724 to 77,062 in population.
Special permission has been granted to certain island constituencies, such as the Western Isles and Orkney and Shetland, which have comparatively limited populations, to fall beyond the population requirements.
Initially, the reforms south of the border were thought to favor the Tories, but a new poll indicated that at the 2024 election, Boris Johnson’s party is on track to lose its 80-seat majority in the House of Commons, as Labour will gain 82 seats, while by taking all but two Scottish seats, the SNP would win another landslide.
London is predicted to win two MPs, widely considered a Labour bastion, taking its total to 75 seats, while the northwest and northeast – two regions where the prime minister made gains at the expense of Labour in the 2019 election – will each be reduced by two seats, which may prove detrimental to the so-called ‘blue wall’ of the Tories.
The reduction of seats in Wales could also weaken the majority of Mr. Johnson in the House of Commons.
“Parliament has set strict rules for greater electoral equality in the new constituencies; those rules and the increase in the total number of constituencies in England mean there is likely to be a large degree of change across the country.”
Mr. Bowden suggested that an initial draft of the proposals would be released in the summer, followed by a public consultation to ensure that the plans “take account of local ties and best reflect the geography on the ground.”