With the advent of successful COVID-19 virus vaccines, the end of the pandemic is in sight, but the virus continues to spread in the short term.
The efficacy of COVID-19 control measures in 40 countries and U.S. states is investigated by a new study published Dec. 29 in PLOS ONE 2020.
Among the findings is that, in order to reduce the development of the virus below zero, substantial social costs must be incurred.
Lower social impact interventions such as canceling public events, restricting meetings to less than 100 participants, and advising people to stay home are not enough to regulate COVID-19 in most countries studied. There is also a need for socially intolerable initiatives like home bans, targeted or full workplace and school closures.
Anita M. McGahan, a university professor and George E. holder, is the author of the analysis.
Chair of Organizations & Society at the Rotman School of Management and Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto; Wesley Wu-Yi Koo, INSEAD Assistant Professor of Strategy; and Phebo Wibbens, INSEAD Assistant Professor of Strategy.
The study used a model to estimate the marginal effect of each measure in a jurisdiction after considering the total portfolio of adopted measures of the jurisdiction, the levels at which the measures are enforced, the strictness of enforcement within the jurisdiction, the COVID-19 infections of the jurisdiction, the COVID-19 deaths and excess deaths of the jurisdiction, and the performance of the mea death portfolio.
Eleven types of COVID-19 control measures were investigated, including school closures, office closures, cancellations of public events, meeting bans, closures of public transport, house arrest, restrictions on internal movement, international travel controls, campaigns for public information, testing, and tracing of contacts.
“Link, “Which COVID interventions are most effective? A Bayesian jurisdictional study of COVID-19” by Phebo D.
PLOS ONE.DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.02441777 Wibbens, Wesley Wu-Yi Koo, and Anita M. McGahan, December 29, 2020,