Bushfire risks: state-by-state

THE BUSHFIRE AND NATURAL HAZARDS COOPERATIVE RESEARCH CENTRE’S BUSHFIRE OUTLOOK

* Queensland

– With severe bushfires currently raging across the state, above-normal fire potential will remain until there’s substantial rainfall

– Below average rainfall and above average temperatures forecast for the coming months

* NSW

– Risk of above-normal fire activity in forested coastal areas and west of the divide, particularly mid-to-late summer

– In the west, this is due to a lack of rain and the likelihood of warmer-than-average temperatures

– Benefits from spring rain along coast expected to be short-lived due to predicted warmer summer

* ACT

– “Challenging” summer expected, with rainfall over the past month not expected to continue

– Above-normal fire risk remains, along with the continued occurrence of heat and dust

* Victoria

– Much of East Gippsland has experienced two consecutive years of record low autumn/winter rain

– Forests there now significantly more flammable than normal, with unusually early bushfires in July/August

– These areas can expect above normal fire potential this season; normal bushfire risk for the Great Divide, Alpine, central, north, south and western regions

* Tasmania

– Fire activity in the period up to the end of December should be relatively normal

– Recent rain has helped moisten vegetation to near normal levels for early summer for most areas

* South Australia

– Parts of the Riverlands, Murraylands, the Flinders Ranges, APY Lands have above normal fire potential

– Potential for bushfires in residential areas of the Mount Lofty Ranges due to fuel growth, dry conditions

* Western Australia

– Above-normal fire potential for Darling Range, south west corner, South Coast, Mallee, Esperance Plains, Pilbara, Gascoyne, Carnarvon, Mallee, Coolgardie regions and Nullarbor, Hampton, Great Victoria deserts

– Reduced risk for Swan Coastal Plain, Avon Wheatbelt, Jarrah Forest, and Warren regions due to previous bushfires and prescribed burning.

(Source: The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2018-19: November)

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